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Midseason Reflections on College Football Season

We are midway through the 2015 College Football Season and the stakes of each game are getting higher as we inch closer to the Playoffs!

Tommy Duff, Editor of The Kickoff, reflected on the season thus far and the challenges ahead for teams still in the hunt…

In the Oct. 19th edition of Kickoff Top 25, we had TCU and Ohio State replaced in the top spots by Utah and LSU. There were 14 undefeated teams in our Top 25, with single-loss Alabama ranked at No. 9. Our Strength of Schedule analysis in that issue showed that Ohio State played a schedule with the largest difference between their ranking and their average opponent ranking in 2015. This indicates that the Buckeyes may not have the “easiest” straight schedule, but in regards to their official rating, they have more of a schedule advantage than any other team in the country.

“Ohio State hasn’t looked good against lower rated teams and does not have any quality wins, plus they have two quarterbacks, which means they don’t have a quarterback,” Duff said. “TCU has been inconsistent. They only beat Iowa State (which had a 2-4 record) by 24 points last week. That’s the second time they’ve nearly been knocked off by a lower rated team.”

The Kickoff was high on Utah and LSU based on several factors, including wins against quality opponents in top-rated conferences, including the Tigers’ win over a Florida team that was undefeated until last week. “At this point, Utah has the most quality wins” over teams like Michigan, California, Arizona State and putting up 62 points against Oregon. Utah ended up losing Saturday to USC 42-24. LSU beat Western Kentucky 48-20.

In the Oct. 26 issue, LSU lept to the top of our Top 25 while Clemson jumped from No. 7 to No. 4. FSU, which lost a heartbreaker to Georgia Tech, fell from No. 8 to No. 15. Alabama moved up two spots after beating Tennessee in a close one. 

Duff said he expects the winner of the Alabama-LSU game to be in the Playoffs. “Leonard Fournette is one of the best players we’ve seen since Bo Jackson in terms of pure natural talent, speed and size. He just demolishes people, which is very rare. He hasn’t had less than 150 yards in a game all season. It is possible LSU is going to fall a bit in the ratings as their schedule eases up. When you look at strength of teams played, they benefitted from their opener against McNeese State being cancelled due to weather on Sept. 5th.”

In other words, we still have a lot of football left to play.

The weeks ahead will determine which coaches get pink slips or trophies. We’ve already seen Steve Spurrier and Steve Sarkisian leave their teams after 2-4 and 3-2 starts respectively. “I knew Spurrier wouldn’t last long with the way South Carolina was performing, but I was surprised he quit in the middle of the season,” Duff said.

Ohio State was atop our Preseason Top 25. Our No. 3 pick, Auburn, is perhaps the biggest shocker of the year, now at 4-3 and out of playoff contention after Saturday’s 4-Overtime game at Arkansas. The Tigers still have Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Georgia, Idaho, and Alabama  remaining on their schedule.

“The media, including The Kickoff, bought into a lot of hype about Jeremy Johnson based on the limited amount of work he did last season as a starter, which looked fabulous and suggested he had better skills than Nick Marshall, but the kid lost his confidence after throwing interceptions, plus Auburn lost Carl Lawson, who was supposed to be their leader on defense and an All-American. Gus Malzahn forgot how important a mobile quarterback was in his system,” Duff said.

Comparing the preseason and last week’s Kickoff Top 25s, Oregon, Georgia, Georgia Tech, Arizona State, Boise State, and Tennessee, all have failed to meet their potential in 2015. Teams that haven’t disappointed so far include TCU, Ohio State, Baylor, Michigan State, Clemson, FSU, Oklahoma State, and Arizona.

Our games of the week last week were Clemson at Miami, FL and Tennessee at Alabama.

We went with undefeated Clemson, which enjoyed a 13.6 difference in Power Ratings with the 4-2 Hurricanes. “Clemson could be in the playoffs, as they have done their thing under the radar this season. They’ll need better quarterback play to get past Florida State on Nov. 7th,” Duff said. The Tigers shut them out 58-0, leading to Al Golden being fired this week.

We assigned the Crimson Tide (6-1) a 9 point difference in Power Ratings over the Volunteers. Duff expected the game to be a close one. “Butch Jones has taken the leash off Josh Dobbs and let him play his own game. Statistically, Tennessee ran the ball all over Georgia. Alabama’s defense is set up to stop a classic pro offense and has problems whenever they face a spread offense with a mobile quarterback,” he said. Bama ended up winning 19-14.

It’s not too late to get our Halftime Subscription so you can arm yourself with knowledge when you face off at your family’s Thanksgiving Dinner against your know-it-all uncle who went to that rival school! We have nine issues left to publish this season. Pay just $10.62 to get a Mid-Season Email/PDF Subscription ($19.58 for printed issues sent 1st Class mail to your home or office).  As the season progresses, we’ll lower the price weekly so you only pay for what’s left of the season. Hey, better late than never to get in the game! Email kickofforders@gmail.com to sign up today.

Also, test your knowledge of college football by participating in our Thursday Throwdown trivia on Facebook. We stumped quite a few people this week with our question about the 1985 Fresno State team that was the only unbeaten Division 1-A team in the country, ranked 16th in the Coaches Poll that year.

Talk to us this weekend while we watch the games. Which upsets are you expecting? How is your team doing so far this year? Sound off! Use the hashtag #thekickoff on Facebook and Twitter so we can follow your conversations.

Enjoy this weekend’s games. We’ll be watching alongside you.

The Kickoff Launches for the 2015 College Football Season

College football at goalline
football-at-goaline

The 2015 College Football Season is almost underway!

In the first issue of the 2015 college football season, published August 31st, The Kickoff shares our Preseason Top 50 and sets the initial Power Ratings for teams playing in this week’s games.

It will come as no surprise that we have Ohio State atop our preseason poll with TCU right behind, but beyond that, we are of a different mind as far as other recent polls based on our analysis of where we expect these schools to end up at the end of the year. We’ll go into that more later this week after our valued subscribers have had a chance to read the first newsletter.

There’s been a lot of speculation on whether the Southeastern Conference is losing its grip on domination. The other leagues are closing the gap on the premiere conference, but we still expect the SEC to rule the world of college football for another year. The margin of difference assigned in the Power Ratings between the SEC and the PAC-12 is growing slimmer.

In the first of 17 issues we will publish each Monday during the season, we place the Vegas ranking, the Amway Coaches’ ranking and our Kickoff ranking side-by-side for an easy comparison of the Top 25 so you can have a tool for making your Week One picks based on a numerical rating of all three polls averaged together.

While The Kickoff isn’t affiliated with the Vegas oddsmakers, our newsletter is a useful tool in prognosticating the results. Take advantage of a Buy 1, Get 1 special on individual subscriptions for a limited time, and you can have our newsletter ready to look at when making your own choices.

In the new issue, we also share our 2015 Preseason Kickoff All Americans (First team, Second team and Third team choices), the leading Heisman candidates and who we expect to be the breakout players this year. You’ll learn which three teams are hot on the Kickoff Thermostat during Week 1.

We also display the relevant stats for our Games of the Week: Alabama’s season opener against Wisconsin and North Carolina in a rare matchup against South Carolina. The Kickoff looks back to this date in 1989, when Notre Dame sat atop the rankings.
Included in the first issue is a list the schedule of every FBS team in the country along with select Division I FCS schedules.

Each week, you’ll be able to consult our Power Ratings for a numerical evaluation of the matchups. We provide this information in a table where you can quickly and easily determine the home teams, their opponents, their respective Power Ratings, and the margin between those ratings. Each team expected to win is designated with an asterisk. These bite-sized bits of information bring you instantly up to speed and reflect the bottom line in a format that fits your busy lifestyle.

For those of you who are new to The Kickoff, we have a complete description and illustration of what you get on our website at http://thekickoffstore.com/the-newsletter/ – It’s all intended to enhance your understanding and enjoyment of college football.

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