Category Archives: Preseason

Issue One with The Kickoff’s Preseason Picks to Publish August 27th

Thursday, 23 August 2018 21:36

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The Kickoff college football newsletter is putting the final touches on our first issue of the 2018 season. We’ll be emailing Issue 1 to PDF subscribers this coming Monday, August 27^th ahead of the Week One games.

The issue includes our Preseason Top 50, which differs from the first AP Top 25 Poll released on August 20^th. We agree that Alabama, Clemson and Georgia appear well positioned for continued success this season.

Ohio State’s position on the Kickoff Preseason Poll was unsettled amidst the controversy over Coach Urban Meyer’s future with the Buckeyes following a domestic abuse scandal with one of his staff coaches. The school suspended Meyer for the first three games of the season about to begin. AP’s initial poll had them ranked #5. Kickoff Editor Tommy Duff said the rankings beyond the top 3 could still change beyond the initial picks before Issue 1 goes out to readers on August 27^th if the situation develops further.

Hugh Freeze Phone Records Show Hundreds of Calls with Booster in NCAA Probe

Friday, 18 August 2017 21:36

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Buy One Get One Free

The Buy One Get One Free “Early Bird” Special is back! For just $31, you can get a full year PDF/Email subscription (23 issues) for yourself — and FREE BONUS subscription for a friend. Or spend $23 for a 17 week Email Subscription that will push a PDF version of our newsletter to your inbox during college football season.

The headlines in college football…

Bleacher Report – Hugh Freeze Called Escort Service While on Ole Miss Recruiting Trip

Bleacher Report – Hugh Freeze Phone Records Show Hundreds of Calls with Booster in NCAA Probe

ESPN – Nick Saban: Did the best I could in communicating QB roles

Sporting News – College football Top 25: Best, worst case for every team

AL.com – Bobby Bowden: ‘Wouldn’t surprise me for Florida State to eke it out’ against Alabama

Saturday Down South – Which QBs will exceed expectations or fall short in Year 2? SEC Network analyst makes his picks

Saturday Down South – Ole Miss has nothing to play for in 2017, which should make rest of SEC nervous

Saturday Down South – Ranking 10 most important people in Alabama’s decade-long dynasty

Saturday Down South – ESPN gives Alabama slim chance of entering CFP undefeated

Saturday Down South – Give them the ball: 1 player on every SEC team who needs more touches in 2017

Associated Press – Plenty of running backs, receivers could produce immediately

Associated Press – Lawyer: Baylor settles with woman who said rape was ignored

SEC Country – Notre Dame AD would ‘love to figure out’ how to schedule future game with Auburn football

Bleacher Report – 50 Names You Need to Know for the 2017 College Football Season

Associated Press – Georgia Tech kicks running back Dedrick Mills off team

Associated Press – Ex-Vanderbilt football player gets minimum 15 years for rape

ESPN – After Tebow and Dak, who’s next for QB guru Dan Mullen?

Curated by Steven Stiefel

The Kickoff: Thoughts on the College Football Season Ahead

Friday, 18 August 2017 13:43

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Our patience is nearly rewarded as we get ready for the start of another exciting season of college football action. Kickoff Editor Tommy Duff offered a few thoughts while preparing Issue One of the college football newsletter, arriving August 28th. The new and improved newsletter is adding two additional pages to the PDF version this year, available for a limited time as a Buy One Get One Free Subscription Special online.

The early lead to the College Football Playoff starts on September 2nd at Mercedes Benz Stadium. That game will be one of our Games of the Week, along with Florida vs Michigan and West Virginia at Virginia Tech.

“We will know quickly whether Alabama will live up to the high expectations as the Tide play FSU on a neutral field in their opening game,” Duff said. “It will be interesting to see as that game should tell us whether FSU is ready to take the next step and/or if years of recruiting at an elite level gives the Tide an advantage of filling holes with seasoned talent.”

Duff said defending National Champions Clemson could be right back in the playoff picture for 2017, but “they’ll need for their young talent to mature fast. Kelly Bryant is expected to take over at the QB position. On defense, Clemson will be strong up front with 5 of their front 7 back. They have an extremely tough early schedule, with Auburn and Louisville in the 2nd and 3rd weeks.”

An embarrassing loss to Clemson in the playoffs should give Ohio State’s 15 returning starters motivation, which they may need going into an early season matchup against Oklahoma. “It is always very difficult to project how a program will respond to the loss of a head coach as respected as Bob Stoops, but Oklahoma returns a load of talent, including All American Quarterback Baker Mayfield. The Oklahoma State game on the road becomes a lot more interesting with Stoops retired.”

Duff expects much from Southern Cal as they build upon a 9-game win streak and a victory in a Rose Bowl Classic. “Though their schedule isn’t easy, they play all their toughest matchups at home,” he said.

Penn State’s success last season surprised many. “Nobody saw them making it to the Rose Bowl Game, but now the faithful expect them to build upon that success, and the pieces are in place for them to do just that. Their most challenging games are in late October, though having Michigan and Ohio State in consecutive weeks is never ideal,” he said.

Other question marks heading into the new season:
• Can Ed Orgeron continue to right the ship at LSU with QB Danny Etling and RB Marion Guice as his main weapons?
• Will Baylor transfer Jarrett Stidham finally give Auburn a proven efficient passer with a cannon under center who can make Gus Malzahn’s offense finally produce again?
• Can we expect some significant improvement in Mark Richt’s 2nd year at the helm in Miami?
• Will Richt’s old team, Georgia, be able to capitalize on a wealth of returning talent and avoid the last second meltdowns?
• How will the suspension of 7 players, including star WR Antonio Callaway, affect the Florida Gators in their opener against Michigan?
• Will defending Heisman Trophy winner Lamar Jackson — the most electrifying college football player in the country last year – make Louisville one of the hottest teams in the country again after 3 losses to end the year left a sour taste?
• Will Michigan be able to replace the talent lost from their 10 win squad of last year before facing off against Penn State on October 21?
• Has Stanford’s rising junior Keller Chryst fully recovered from the ACL injury from last season’s Sun Bowl?
• Can Boise State prevail in week two, when they travel to Washington State, and enjoy one of those type years they perfected during the BCS era?
• What will Charlie Strong be able to do with a South Florida team with one of the country’s most manageable schedules and led by one of the best quarterbacks in the country in Quinton Flowers?
• What will be the impact of all of the turmoil on Ole Miss?
• Where will teams like Tennessee, Oregon, Texas A&M, and Arkansas end up after teams in the Top 25 start to fall?

Catch more of Duff’s Analysis of college football news and statistics in Issue One of The Kickoff, coming August 28th. Our prognosticator-in-chief gives his opinions each Friday from noon to 1 pm Eastern on WAAK 94.7 FM radio in Chattanooga, Tennessee. You can listen online at https://www.waakradio.com/listen-live/

The long wait for a new season officially ends at 1:30 pm Eastern on Saturday, August 26th as Oregon State and Colorado State clash at Sonny Lubick Field. Stanford, Rice, Hawaii, UMass, South Florida, San Jose State, Portland State and BYU also have games that day before the majority of FBS teams play on Thursday, August 31-Saturday, September 2nd.

To get the special Buy One Get One Free Special on 2017 electronic versions (PDF) of The Kickoff newsletter, delivered weekly on Monday mornings to email inboxes (as advertised on WDEF Channel 12), visit https://thekickoffstore.com/wdef/

Additionally, you can subscribe by visiting this link to print, fill out, and mail the form to us with your enclosed check or credit card number. A third option is to call our office at (423) 267-0953.

Just don’t wait because the season is almost underway!

What to Expect from the Expanded Kickoff Newsletter

Friday, 09 June 2017 13:29

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Now is a great time to Subscribe! The Buy One Get One Free “Early Bird” Special is back! For just $39, you can get a full year PDF/Email subscription (23 issues) for yourself — and FREE BONUS subscription for a friend. Or spend $23 for a 17 week Email Subscription that will push a PDF version of our newsletter to your inbox during college football season.

When the 2017 season of The Kickoff begins with issue #1 (August 2017), the electronic/PDF version will contain two additional pages of new information. According to Tommy Duff, Editor of the college football newsletter, the content will specifically focus on providing details of use to those making game picks. Since many of our readers are considering whether to renew their subscriptions for the fall, we felt this would be a good time to preview what’s being added!

“(The Kickoff) will be making choices based on point spreads as well as our proprietary formula,” Duff said. “It’s an additional formulation based on the spread and not The Kickoff formulas used to rank teams generally.”

Duff said one of the new pages in each weekly PDF issue (6 pages total) will offer extended stats such as points for and against, records against the spread, OOC records, division records, and similar information broken down into more useful bits.

Why add this? Because we know you have many choices for seeking out information about college football, and we want to remain one of the best sources.

We’re Betting You’re Going to Like the Changes

The Kickoff knows that there are all sorts of reasons to seek out prognostications, including betting on outcomes. These can range from friendly wagers and office pools for bragging rights to the sort of action that has created a billion-dollar gambling industry online and in casinos.

Sports Gambling Expert Dave Schwab provides insight into the important things one needs to know to get a solid feel for how sports betting works.

“The first part of the process are the betting lines and spreads that are routinely set by Oddsmakers. A betting line is designed to handicap a specific sporting event to even-out the playing field between a favorite and an underdog. When it comes to a sport such as football, a spread in points is created as the most popular way to even things out. It is important to remember that a point spread is not designed to predict what the margin of victory will be in any particular game, rather it is designed as a betting tool that aims to even-out the money that is bet on either side of that matchup,” Schwab writes.

Some who participate in sports betting use sportsbooks such as Bovada, BetOnline or 5Dimes. Schwab points to the importance of getting information from unbiased sources. Unlike a lot of websites that also offer information, tips and hints, The Kickoff is NOT in the business of accepting wagers – we simply exist to give our subscribers the best available information as we see it through our proprietary system.

The Kickoff also doesn’t play favorites when it comes to ranking teams, although, we’ll admit that past performance nearly always factors into future expectations. A certain outcome is probable based on a number of factors that go into objectively analyzing the teams. We compare teams’ history and average scores at home, on the road, and on neutral ground, as well as difficulty of schedule, and other considerations.

More Than Just Another Computer Algorithm

By adding the human element to fine-tune what the sportsbooks likely recommend as well, The Kickoff earns its reputation as one of the most accurate sources for NCAA statistics and prognostication since we started all of this in 1951.

Bite-sized bits of information bring you instantly up to speed in a no-nonsense format that fits your busy lifestyle. Overall Stats give you a larger perspective on how the home and road favorites have performed throughout the season against the spread.

Our Kickoff Top 25 paints a quick picture of where the schools and conferences stand, listing their win-loss record so far in the season, along with their respective Kickoff Power Ratings. Teams do evolve as a season progresses; as game results come in over several weeks, the ratings are effectively calibrated.

All of this information is created so our readers aren’t “flying blind” when the time comes to make their picks. Let’s face it: Knowledge IS power. The Kickoff is here for you like a friend obsessed with college football, sharing our opinions on how games are likely to turn out. As long as you’re a subscriber, we’re perfectly fine being your “cheat sheet” to convince your workmates and buddies that you’re some sort of genius when it comes to the game.

During the Season, we work hard on weekends to make sure the latest edition hits your email inbox by Monday morning. We want to give you plenty of time to use us as a helpful tool when deciding on your weekly picks. This timeliness factor, combined with the two additional pages, are why so many of our subscribers who’ve traditionally received a printed version of The Kickoff delivered by First Class Mail are now opting to go electronic instead. We’ve adapted for this fast-paced online world we now live in.

Sports Gambling: From Office Pools to Casino Action

At casinos like the Atlantis Race & Sports Book in the Bahamas, there are simultaneous HD video feeds, dozens of personal betting stations and even VIP betting stations. Sports wagering has become a huge business.

The Kickoff encourages readers to use it carefully when factoring in decisions on wagering money.

“If you are relatively new to sports betting, then you might want to limit your wagers to straight bets using a set point spread… A straight bet would be a set amount of money wagered on the favorite giving the points or on the underdog getting the points,” Schwab writes.

With straight bets, a betting line called the point spread is set, and you can either bet on the favorite and give-up the points or place a bet on the underdog and get the points. The favorite has to win the game by more than the set point spread in order to cash-in. The underdog has to win outright or lose by less than the point spread to “cover” and win the bet. Ties in this situation are known as a “push” and no money is lost or won.

The betting public tends to gravitate towards the top 25 teams in the nation when it comes to betting on college football. Schwab writes that because of the sheer volume of teams in Division IA football, most professional handicappers “tend to gravitate towards a limited selection of teams when it comes to releasing selections for the games.”

The Kickoff’s first issue of the season traditionally ranks the Preseason Top 50, with each successive week listing our Top 25 rankings (which may vary from other polls based on our analysis) right next to the previous week’s ratings for comparison viewing. The Kickoff also includes select Division I FCS team schedules because we know those schools and games matter as well to our readers.

Schwab points out that college and professional games differ because the love of the game and the emotional aspect of intense rivalries must be factored into matchups. Underdogs come into mismatches with huge chips on their shoulders because they have something to prove.

“Betting on sports is not as nearly as easy as it may appear and the average bettor is making nothing more than an educated guess at best when betting on the outcome of any sporting event… Even the best handicappers struggle to keep their winning percentage above 60 percent, so there is no such thing as a ‘sure bet’ or a ‘lock’ when taking this approach to wagering on sports. That’s why they call it gambling.”

With the additions set to arrive in the 2017 editions of The Kickoff, we’re providing you with even more information to use however you see fit.

To learn more about what’s waiting for you in The Kickoff, visit https://thekickoffstore.com/college-football-newsletter/

Spring Reflection: The Way-Too-Early Look at Teams

Friday, 28 April 2017 19:49

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You can’t read too much into spring games, but they do offer some insight into potential and weak spots. These things mostly give fans a chance to raise their hopes anew while letting the new faces on the field experience a taste of what’s to come when the stadiums are packed with screaming fans.

Tommy Duff, Editor of The Kickoff college football newsletter, offered some thoughts on top teams across the sport after watching them do their spring thing.

Any talk about championships in the making has to include Alabama and Clemson, who spent the last couple of years trading victories in title games. Duff said Clemson has talent at quarterback, even with Deshaun Watson off the roster.

“Clemson’s problem is that they lost wide receivers and running backs as well as Watson, so it’s going to be a whole lot of fresh faces on offense,” Duff said. “As for Bama, the coaching situation is a mess on offense. How good of a passer can Jalen Hurts be?”

In the spring game at Bryant-Denny Stadium, Hurts completed 16 of 25 passes for 301 yards with two touchdowns and an interception. He was also sacked seven times (tagged is more accurate since Nick Saban didn’t want his defenders slamming his probable starter into the turf). Freshman Tua Tagovaila out of Hawaii also had 3 TDs and an interception, completing 18 of 30 passes for 315 yards.

Other thoughts from Duff:

“(Baylor transfer quarterback) Jarrett Stidham looked very good for Auburn. He finished the spring game 16-of-20 for 267 yards and ran in a touchdown fumbled by the running back.”

“Georgia looked solid, but I’m still not sold on how they utilize their talent on offense. They’re strong talent-wise, but the Bulldogs have never utilized their speed at wide receiver. We have to wait and see how Jacob Eason develops at quarterback.”

“LSU still has an impressive running game, but it remains to be seen whether they can take advantage of their weapons at wide receiver. I’m excited to see how good Derrius Guice can be without Leonard Fournette taking carries.

“Tennessee’s spring game format is still difficult to understand. The scoring makes no sense. It looked as though the DBs were instructed to play soft, leaving intermediate passes wide open, and there were a lot of walk-ons playing against first teamers, creating easily exploited mismatches. The weather didn’t help either since they canceled the second half.

“I want to see what happens with quarterback situations at Tennessee and Florida. Quinten Dormady and Jarrett Guarantano are competing to replace Joshua Dobbs while Feleipe Franks and Kyle Trask have battled for the No. 1 spot for the Gators.”

“Miami may take a step back this year without Brad Kaaya. He was a good quarterback. I think Mark Richt is probably a year away.”

“I wish I knew how the NCAA situation will affect Ole Miss. We’ll just have to see how the appeals process plays out.”

Of course, there are 130 teams all hoping to play in Atlanta on January 8th. As we move closer to the start of the regular season on August 26th, The Kickoff will be sure to offer more insight into the pool of talent and prognosticate performance.

Duff is hard at work on the 20th issue of the year, due out next week. In it, he’ll take a close look at the familiar faces from college ball that we’ll see playing in the NFL.

Page 1 of 3

Category Archives: Preseason

Issue One with The Kickoff’s Preseason Picks to Publish August 27th

Hugh Freeze Phone Records Show Hundreds of Calls with Booster in NCAA Probe

Buy One Get One Free

The headlines in college football…

The Kickoff: Thoughts on the College Football Season Ahead

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